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Real Time Delphi Study

Collecting and Synthesizing Expert Opinions






A World Without WMD

Control of Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Desrruction

 

To see a reference paper on this topic click here

 

Please answer the questions in the form below. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: psdemo . This study is scheduled to close on 2018-07-15.


By pass introduction

This study is designed to collect judgments about the about the control of nuclear proliferation. We are concerned about the means for reducing the threat of weapons of mass distraction including nuclear, biological, and cyber. In our scope we include technologies, social and economic strategies, and military means. We need your judgments about likelihood and effectiveness of the listed developments and strategies. Also, please provide the reasons behind your judgments.  

You may omit any questions you wish and you do not have to complete this list of questions in one visit. When you return to the questionnaire you will see your previous answers and may add to them or change them if you wish. You are encouraged to return to this list of questions often.


Please return to the questionnaire often. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: psdemo .


                                                

Please remember to press SUBMIT at end of questionnaire.

Questionnaire

Liklihood

Consequences

Institutional Factors

1
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Bio-hackers write genetic code in their home labs: new viruses and life forms abound; first blackmail case arises from the invention of a lethal virus without a known cure.

(details) Finding which of these new life-form inventions are dangerous is a tough problem; solutions are elusive. Blackmail is legally prohibited.

How likely is the development (100= certain)

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

Please rate the importance of this development

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are institutions to cope with this development?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

2
Policy: A rash of SIMAD ("lone wolf") attacks leads to the application of psychological detection of propensity for intense anti social behavior of essentially all children in the world.

(details) SIMAD means single individual, massively destructive. Usually associated with construction and use of weapons of mass destruction by single individuals- bio weapons, nuclear, psycho weapons.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

3
A nuclear weapon is used by one nation against another in an escalating conflict that world organizations cannot stop.

How likely is the development (100= certain)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

Please rate the importance of this development

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are institutions to cope with this development?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

4
Development: Nuclear weapon stockpiles can be detected from low earth orbit.

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

5
Difficulty in distinguishing between truth and falsity; high levels of skepticism about anything on Internet or published by governments

How likely is the development (100= certain)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

Please rate the importance of this development

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are institutions to cope with this development?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

6
Difficulty in distinguishing between truth and falsity; high levels of skepticism about anything on Internet or published by governments

How likely is the development (100= certain)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

Please rate the importance of this development

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are institutions to cope with this development?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

7
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Tensions escalated. Nuclear missiles were launched by N Korea against Seoul.

(details) Patriot missiles killed the attacking missile. Threatened retaliation led to overthrow of the N Korean government.

How likely is the development (100= certain)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

Please rate the importance of this development

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are institutions to cope with this development?

Very High
High
50/50
Low
Very Low

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

8
Variable: How many warheads do you think will be stored in the world by 2027?

(details) In 2017: Russia had 7,000, the US 6,000, and all others combined 1,200

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

9
What other items would you recommend adding to this set?

To proceed to the answer form please click here

 

 

 

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTIONS

To submit comments and suggestions click here

 

 

Please remember to return to the questionnaire often. When you come back, you will see how the group's answers have evolved and can edit your comments in response. If you have difficulties please send your questions to ahines@Central.UH.EDU .

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Date: 21 September, 2017

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