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Real Time Delphi Study

Collecting and Synthesizing Expert Opinions






The Main Title Goes Here

The subtitle goes here- it can be a little longer

Please answer the questions in the form below. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles . This study is scheduled to close on 2030-12-31.


By pass introduction

DEFAULT1 This study is designed to collect judgments about the answers to a list of questions. You may omit any questions you wish and you do not have to complete this list of questions in one visit. When you return to the questionnaire you will see your previous answers and may add to them or change them if you wish. You are encouraged to return to this list of questions often, but please plan to complete your input before


Please return to the questionnaire often. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles .


                                                

To make sure all your answers are saved, please remember to press SUBMIT at end of questionnaire..

Questionnaire


1
125 mpg cars available to consumer market for less than $25,000.

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(details) The competitors for the X Prize have run trials and winners have been chosen. Now the problem is to move into production.

data1

asd2

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What now brown cow?

top

bottom

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Grey cow

1
2
3

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Red Cow

Left
Mid
Right
( 2 )
( 2 )
( 2 )

Changes are OK

To provide reasons and suggest changes click here

2
NEW A foreign auto or investment firms buys a major portion of General Motors stock with any eye toward merger.

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(details) Best Guess Please

China 2000 auto sales: 2 milliom

China 2005 auto sales: 6 million

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White Plane

Changes are OK avg= 3.73 (4 )

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Green Plane

RB 1
2
3
4
5
(1)
(0)
(0)
(1)
(0)

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Yellow Plane

22

33

44

55

3
New automobiles weight, on the average, drops to only 75% of today's new autos.

US 2003: 4079 pounds

US 2008: 3202 pounds

2025=5000

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1

2

4
Traffic congestion forces more than 100 major cities in the world to restrict access of trucks and cars from their downtown areas during certain times of day or night (through outright bans or access fees).

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(details) This means a complete lock down of access in peak hours, using cameras to catch violators.

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5
Improved safety provisions become standard; result mortality rate in collisions drops to 1/2 of today's.

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(details) Examples include: rollover sensors, roof mounted airbags,active headlight systems, collision warning systems, lane control systems, active tire pressure monitoring, and adaptive cruise control

2012= 30,000 (est, US)

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one
two
three
five
( 1 )
( 0 )
( 0 )
( 1 )

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one ( 1 )
four ( 0 )

Your answer has been entered, and you may change it at any time.

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6
Automobiles become much closer to being autonomous: e.g. lane tracking, closing radars, blind spot warning, and drowsy driver. These technologies and others like them on 75% of all new cars sold.

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7
Redesign of engine compartments to permit minor owner maintenance (spark plugs, oil change) on 5% of new cars.

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8
Home chargers available for cars as large as Chevy Volt for under $40.00.

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9
Globally, 30,000 cars are produced annually that have dual controls for training.

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10
Variable: World motor velicle production

1997= 54 milion

2010= 78 million

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

11
Variable: Percent of global sales by US manufacturers

(details) Please no not use the percentage sign or pnctuation in your answer

1985= 74

2011= 47

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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12
Variable: Percent share of global automobile market held by Japanese manufacturers

1985= 19

2011= 34

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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13
Variable: Motorcycle sales

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(details) Includes sport, off road, and scooters

2005 1,100,000

2011= 420,000

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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14
Variable: Average price of a new car in the US

2012= 30,000 (est, US)

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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15
Variable: Average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US

September 2012= 3.85 per gallon

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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16
Variable: Average number of miles driven per year per car

2011= 15,000

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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17
Variable: Average age of all automobiles in the US

2012= 11 years

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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18
Variable: Percent of all cars sold in the US that are plug-in

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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19
Variable: Percent of worldwide production that is hybrids

2012= 2 percent

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What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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20
Development: "Peak car" is reached- that is the ime when the number of cars sold and mies driven reach an historic peak and then start to decline.

(details) The average amount driven by Americans actually began to plateau in the early ’00s. In other developed countries, such as Britain, Japan, and Germany, the average miles (or “kilometers,” for the Economist’s European readers) driven per vehicle have been dropping at least since 1990 (Time Magazine)

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What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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21
Development: Most auto insurers offer a gadget that records driving habits and, for safe drivers, can lower insurance costs

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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22
Development: Most cities over 100,00 people offer some sort of free bicycle sharing.

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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23
Development: Autonomous cars are approved for limited use in half the states in the US

(details) California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill in 2012 clearing the way for self-driving cars to jockey with human-operated vehicles to test the technology on the state's roads.

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What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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24
Development: Customers and choose graffiti for their paint scheme

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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25
Development: 10% of the autos sold are for a maximum of 2 people.

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What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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26
Development: Battery technology improves storage efficiency by 50% while reducing costs of storage by 50%

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What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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27
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with bluetooth capability to link to cell phones or other portable devices

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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28
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with photochromic windshieds that dim in bright sunlight or under driver control

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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29
Policy: Heavy trucks are banned from city cores at certain times in most large cities of the world.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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30
Policy: Automobile import restriction tighen around the world, mainly to protect doestic industry and jobs.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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31
Policy: US government doubles R&D investment in auto-related R&D

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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32
Policy: Manufacturers in certain industries are given subsidies for bring formerly internationally outsourced jobs back home.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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33
Policy: Fleet fuel efficiency standards in the US call for 60 mpg.

(details) The Obama administration in September 2012 announced the final version of proposed landmark fuel-economy standards that would almost double the average gas mileage for each automaker's passenger vehicle fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.(LA Times)

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What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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34
Policy: No lead, no alcohol 100 octane fuel becomes available for general aviation

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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35
Policy: Auto personal property tax is based on use rather than vehicle age; use is estimated automatically from large numbers of cameras that record license plate numbers

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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36
Policy: In most jurisdictions, older drivers are required to undergo driving competency tests yearly after the age of 85.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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37
Policy: Penalties for driving while intoxicated include automatic license suspension, in all US states and in most countries around the world.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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38
Policy: Most cities around the world adopt a policy of limiting the number of cars permitted to enter the city at certain times. This is enforced by cameras that supply information on use and tax offenders

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?


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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?


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39
Please add any other developments, variables, or policies that you think should be on this list.

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Date:29 March, 2024

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