Please answer the questions in the form below. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles . This study is scheduled to close on 2030-12-31.
Please return to the questionnaire often.
When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles .
| |
|
|
|
1 |
125 mpg cars available to consumer market for less than $25,000.
(details)
The competitors for the X Prize have run trials and winners have been chosen. Now the problem is to move into production.
data1
asd2
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
What now brown cow?
Submit only this cell
To provide reasons and suggest changes click here
|
Grey cow
Submit only this cell
To provide reasons and suggest changes click here
|
Red Cow
Left
|
Mid
|
Right
|
|
|
|
(
2 ) |
(
2 ) |
(
2 )
|
To provide reasons and suggest changes click here
|
2 |
NEW A foreign auto or investment firms buys a major portion of General Motors stock with any eye toward merger.
(details)
Best Guess Please
China 2000 auto sales: 2 milliom
China 2005 auto sales: 6 million
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
White Plane
Changes are OK |
avg= 3.73 (4 ) |
Submit only this cell
To provide reasons and suggest changes click here
|
Green Plane
RB 1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1)
|
(0) |
(0) |
(1) |
(0) |
Submit only this cell
To provide reasons and suggest changes click here
|
Yellow Plane
|
3 |
New automobiles weight, on the average, drops to only 75% of today's new autos.
US 2003: 4079 pounds
US 2008: 3202 pounds
2025=5000
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
4 |
Traffic congestion forces more than 100 major cities in the world to restrict access of trucks and cars from their downtown areas during certain times of day or night (through outright bans or access fees).
(details)
This means a complete lock down of access in peak hours, using cameras to catch violators.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
5 |
Improved safety provisions become standard; result mortality rate in collisions drops to 1/2 of today's.
(details)
Examples include: rollover sensors, roof mounted airbags,active headlight systems, collision warning systems, lane control systems, active tire pressure monitoring, and adaptive cruise control
2012= 30,000 (est, US)
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
one
|
two
|
three
|
five
|
|
|
|
|
(
1 ) |
(
0 ) |
(
0 ) |
(
1 ) |
Submit only this cell
|
Your answer has been entered, and you may change it at any time.
Submit only this cell
|
6 |
Automobiles become much closer to being autonomous: e.g. lane tracking, closing radars, blind spot warning, and drowsy driver. These technologies and others like them on 75% of all new cars sold.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
7 |
Redesign of engine compartments to permit minor owner maintenance (spark plugs, oil change) on 5% of new cars.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
8 |
Home chargers available for cars as large as Chevy Volt for under $40.00.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
9 |
Globally, 30,000 cars are produced annually that have dual controls for training.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
|
|
|
10 |
Variable: World motor velicle production
1997= 54 milion
2010= 78 million
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
|
11 |
Variable: Percent of global sales by US manufacturers
(details)
Please no not use the percentage sign or pnctuation in your answer
1985= 74
2011= 47
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
12 |
Variable: Percent share of global automobile market held by Japanese manufacturers
1985= 19
2011= 34
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
13 |
Variable: Motorcycle sales
(details)
Includes sport, off road, and scooters
2005 1,100,000
2011= 420,000
click here for video
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
14 |
Variable: Average price of a new car in the US
2012= 30,000 (est, US)
click here for video
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
15 |
Variable: Average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US
September 2012= 3.85 per gallon
click here for video
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
16 |
Variable: Average number of miles driven per year per car
2011= 15,000
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
17 |
Variable: Average age of all automobiles in the US
2012= 11 years
click here for video
click here for example
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
18 |
Variable: Percent of all cars sold in the US that are plug-in
click here for video
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
19 |
Variable: Percent of worldwide production that is hybrids
2012= 2 percent
click here for video
|
What is the best plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)
Submit only this cell
|
20 |
Development: "Peak car" is reached- that is the ime when the number of cars sold and mies driven reach an historic peak and then start to decline.
(details)
The average amount driven by Americans actually began to plateau in the early ’00s. In other developed countries, such as Britain, Japan, and Germany, the average miles (or “kilometers,” for the Economist’s European readers) driven per vehicle have been dropping at least since 1990 (Time Magazine)
click here for video
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
21 |
Development: Most auto insurers offer a gadget that records driving habits and, for safe drivers, can lower insurance costs
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
22 |
Development: Most cities over 100,00 people offer some sort of free bicycle sharing.
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
23 |
Development: Autonomous cars are approved for limited use in half the states in the US
(details)
California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill in 2012 clearing the way for self-driving cars to jockey with human-operated vehicles to test the technology on the state's roads.
click here for video
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
24 |
Development: Customers and choose graffiti for their paint scheme
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
25 |
Development: 10% of the autos sold are for a maximum of 2 people.
click here for video
click here for example
click here for example
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
26 |
Development: Battery technology improves storage efficiency by 50% while reducing costs of storage by 50%
click here for video
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
27 |
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with bluetooth capability to link to cell phones or other portable devices
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
28 |
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with photochromic windshieds that dim in bright sunlight or under driver control
|
What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)
Submit only this cell
|
How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
29 |
Policy: Heavy trucks are banned from city cores at certain times in most large cities of the world.
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
30 |
Policy: Automobile import restriction tighen around the world, mainly to protect doestic industry and jobs.
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
31 |
Policy: US government doubles R&D investment in auto-related R&D
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
32 |
Policy: Manufacturers in certain industries are given subsidies for bring formerly internationally outsourced jobs back home.
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
33 |
Policy: Fleet fuel efficiency standards in the US call for 60 mpg.
(details)
The Obama administration in September 2012 announced the final version of proposed landmark fuel-economy standards that would almost double the average gas mileage for each automaker's passenger vehicle fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.(LA Times)
click here for video
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
34 |
Policy: No lead, no alcohol 100 octane fuel becomes available for general aviation
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
35 |
Policy: Auto personal property tax is based on use rather than vehicle age; use is estimated automatically from large numbers of cameras that record license plate numbers
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
36 |
Policy: In most jurisdictions, older drivers are required to undergo driving competency tests yearly after the age of 85.
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
37 |
Policy: Penalties for driving while intoxicated include automatic license suspension, in all US states and in most countries around the world.
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
38 |
Policy: Most cities around the world adopt a policy of limiting the number of cars permitted to enter the city at certain times. This is enforced by cameras that supply information on use and tax offenders
|
What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?
Submit only this cell
|
What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?
Submit only this cell
|
39 |
Please add any other developments, variables, or policies that you think should be on this list.
|
Submit only this cell
|
Submit only this cell
|
Submit only this cell
|