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Real Time Delphi Study

Collecting and Synthesizing Expert Opinions






The Futures of Automobiles

An Example of a Real Time Delphi Study Using Automobiles

 

To see a reference paper on this topic click here

 

Please answer the questions in the form below. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles . This study is scheduled to close on 2018-12-31.


By pass introduction

Introduction

This is an on-going study and a demonstration of the Real Time Delphi process. You are invited to make inputs if you wish.

The study is designed to collect judgments about the likelihood and impacts of  key prospective developments, variables, and public policies that can affect the automobile, leisure, and transportation,.

The items that make up this questionnaire are global in nature. The entries have been gleaned from prior studies of the Millennium Project and others as areas of particular importance to future of the industry and its impacts. You will have the ability to add or suggest changes to this list.

Your answers will remain anonymous although your name will be listed as a participant. Please answer only those questions about which you feel comfortable. Leaving sections blank is quite acceptable. You do not have to complete this list of questions in one visit. When you return to the questionnaire you will see your previous answers and may add to them or change them if you wish. You are encouraged to return to this list of questions often.

Instructions

The questionnaire is in the form of a matrix. The rows list potential developments, variables and policies; the columns pose questions about the items that appear on the rows. Each cell in the table below has several entries:
The line REASONS CLICK HERE appears at the bottom of each cell. This takes you to a new page where you will be asked for the reasons behind your answers. Please read the comments that others have submitted and respond if you wish. When you return you can change your inputs based on the comments.

There are two ways to enter your answers on this page. 1) You may enter your answers one at a time by pressing the GO button in each cell or 2) you may press the SUBMIT THIS PAGE button at the bottom of the form to enter your answers all at once. In either case, your answers will be entered immediately, and the form will return to your screen. The form will contain your answers, and the group answers will have been updated to include your estimate. You may change your answers if you wish.

If not otherwise stated, the questions deal with the world as whole rather than a specific country, and if there is ambiguity, please assue the question deals with the global automobile industry.

Finally

At the bottom of this page you will also find a link to a new page where you may submit comments, suggestions, and additions. Please follow this link; your inputs are important. We really appreciate your inputs. You may make revisions to your answers until the study closes.


Please return to the questionnaire often. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: $email and this study code: automobiles .


                                                

Please remember to press SUBMIT at end of questionnaire.

Questionnaire

Question 1

Question 2

Question 3

1
125 mpg cars available to consumer market for less than $25,000.

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(details) The competitors for the X Prize have run trials and winners have been chosen. Now the problem is to move into production.

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Changes are OK avg= 0.60 (1 )

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge ( 0)
Large ( 0)
Modest ( 0)
Slight ( 1)
None ( 0)

Your answer has been entered, and you may change it at any time.

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry ( 44.0 ) ( 1 )

On the US industry ( 55.0 ) ( 1 )

For the consumer ( 66.0 ) ( 1 )

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

2
A foreign auto or investment firms buys a major portion of General Motors stock with any eye toward merger.

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China 2000 auto sales: 2 milliom

China 2005 auto sales: 6 million

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Changes are OK avg= 0.20 (1 )

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

3
Specialized vehicles for the elderly and teen-agers.

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(details) These specialized vehicles may be glorified golf carts, some cities may even have grass "roads" exclusively for them.

2008 = 150,00 golf carts sold in US

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

4
New automobiles weight, on the average, drops to only 75% of today's new autos.

US 2003: 4079 pounds

US 2008: 3202 pounds

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

5
Traffic congestion forces more than 100 major cities in the world to restrict access of trucks and cars from their downtown areas during certain times of day or night (through outright bans or access fees).

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(details) This means a complete lock down of access in peak hours, using cameras to catch violators.

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

6
Improved safety provisions become standard; result mortality rate in collisions drops to 1/2 of today's.

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(details) Examples include: rollover sensors, roof mounted airbags,active headlight systems, collision warning systems, lane control systems, active tire pressure monitoring, and adaptive cruise control

2012= 30,000 (est, US)

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

7
Automobiles become much closer to being autonomous: e.g. lane tracking, closing radars, blind spot warning, and drowsy driver. These technologies and others like them on 75% of all new cars sold.

picture

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

8
Redesign of engine compartments to permit minor owner maintenance (spark plugs, oil change) on 5% of new cars.

picture

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

9
Home chargers available for cars as large as Chevy Volt for under $40.00.

picture

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

10
Globally, 30,000 cars are produced annually that have dual controls for training.

picture

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence by 2030?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How large will the effect be on the global industry?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What are the chances that the development will have significant negative consequences on the market? (0-100; 100 is the worst)

On the global industry

On the US industry

For the consumer

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

11
Variable: World motor velicle production

1997= 54 milion

2010= 78 million

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

12
Variable: Percent of global sales by US manufacturers

(details) Please no not use the percentage sign or pnctuation in your answer

1985= 74

2011= 47

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

13
Variable: Percent share of global automobile market held by Japanese manufacturers

1985= 19

2011= 34

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

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14
Variable: Motorcycle sales

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(details) Includes sport, off road, and scooters

2005 1,100,000

2011= 420,000

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

15
Variable: Average price of a new car in the US

2012= 30,000 (est, US)

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

16
Variable: Average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US

September 2012= 3.85 per gallon

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

17
Variable: Average number of miles driven per year per car

2011= 15,000

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

18
Variable: Average age of all automobiles in the US

2012= 11 years

click here for example

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

19
Variable: Percent of all cars sold in the US that are plug-in

picture

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

20
Variable: Percent of worldwide production that is hybrids

2012= 2 percent

click here for example

What is the best plausible value within the next decade?

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What is the worst plausible value within the next decade?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the relative importance of this variable? (0-100)

Submit only this cell

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21
Development: "Peak car" is reached- that is the ime when the number of cars sold and mies driven reach an historic peak and then start to decline.

(details) The average amount driven by Americans actually began to plateau in the early ’00s. In other developed countries, such as Britain, Japan, and Germany, the average miles (or “kilometers,” for the Economist’s European readers) driven per vehicle have been dropping at least since 1990 (Time Magazine)

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

22
Development: Most auto insurers offer a gadget that records driving habits and, for safe drivers, can lower insurance costs

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

23
Development: Most cities over 100,00 people offer some sort of free bicycle sharing.

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

24
Development: Autonomous cars are approved for limited use in half the states in the US

(details) California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill in 2012 clearing the way for self-driving cars to jockey with human-operated vehicles to test the technology on the state's roads.

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

25
Development: Customers and choose graffiti for their paint scheme

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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26
Development: 10% of the autos sold are for a maximum of 2 people.

click here for example

click here for example

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

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27
Development: Battery technology improves storage efficiency by 50% while reducing costs of storage by 50%

click here for example

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

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28
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with bluetooth capability to link to cell phones or other portable devices

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

Submit only this cell

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29
Development: Most new cars and light trucks are sold with photochromic windshieds that dim in bright sunlight or under driver control

What is the likelihood of occurrence in the next ten years?

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What is the likely impact of this development? (0=none; 100= greatest)

Submit only this cell

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How ready are instiutions for this development (please explain)?

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30
Policy: Heavy trucks are banned from city cores at certain times in most large cities of the world.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

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31
Policy: Automobile import restriction tighen around the world, mainly to protect doestic industry and jobs.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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32
Policy: US government doubles R&D investment in auto-related R&D

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
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None

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
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None

Submit only this cell

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33
Policy: Manufacturers in certain industries are given subsidies for bring formerly internationally outsourced jobs back home.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
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None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
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Modest
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None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

34
Policy: Fleet fuel efficiency standards in the US call for 60 mpg.

(details) The Obama administration in September 2012 announced the final version of proposed landmark fuel-economy standards that would almost double the average gas mileage for each automaker's passenger vehicle fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.(LA Times)

click here for example

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

To provide reasons and suggested changes click here

What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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35
Policy: No lead, no alcohol 100 octane fuel becomes available for general aviation

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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36
Policy: Auto personal property tax is based on use rather than vehicle age; use is estimated automatically from large numbers of cameras that record license plate numbers

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
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None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
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Modest
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None

Submit only this cell

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37
Policy: In most jurisdictions, older drivers are required to undergo driving competency tests yearly after the age of 85.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
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None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
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Modest
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None

Submit only this cell

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38
Policy: Penalties for driving while intoxicated include automatic license suspension, in all US states and in most countries around the world.

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
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None

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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39
Policy: Most cities around the world adopt a policy of limiting the number of cars permitted to enter the city at certain times. This is enforced by cameras that supply information on use and tax offenders

What is the likelihood of implementation in the next ten years?

Huge
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None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood it will achieve its objectives in the next ten years?

Huge
Large
Modest
Slight
None

Submit only this cell

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What is the likelihood of a backlash (please explain)?

Huge
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Modest
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None

Submit only this cell

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40
Please add any other developments, variables, or policies that you think should be on this list.

To proceed to the answer form please click here

 

 

 

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTIONS

To submit comments and suggestions click here

 

 

Please remember to return to the questionnaire often. When you come back, you will see how the group's answers have evolved and can edit your comments in response. If you have difficulties please send your questions to tedjgordon@gmail.com .

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Date: 20 November, 2017

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